COMMENTS
I think it is inevitable that the old trad Madison Avenue firms will start to loose "market share" as it becomes obvious that more people get their information from the internet and connections then they do from TV. Even on the internet I tend to get my news from the New York Times and the BBC and not from anything that NBC, CBS or ABC puts up (actually, I have never even been to their sites). Marketing is going to change bigtime in the next 5 years and these guys better get with the "program."
While I am not a Madisaon Ave Ad Agency or for that matter in Marketing directly, I am very invloved in Marketing my company, MediaCOM Inc of Stamford, CT.
In regards to your article & questions, I do agree with many of your points, especially with "Ads in my Face" Marketing. Q: Is Madison Ave going to Grow...? You said something very interesting in your article. For those agencies that don't stick their heeads in the sand or are in denial but realize they may need to shrink before they grow is a great statement! The agencies that adapt to the new world of Marketing i.e. Inbound Marketing and being found when someone needs their service or product is the future. And the future is now! Don't think so? Well then think about this...Why would Pepsi decide NOT to advertise during the SuperBowl but rather spend $20m on Social Media Marketing? Something to think about. What does this say about the future of Marketing?
I don't understand Madison Ave's reluctance to accept the changing dynamics of advertising. The paradigm is shifting and either go with the flow or be drowned in its wake.
It seems the big boys are afraid to make this "adjustment" in fear that it might cannibalize their present business and revenue streams. But its either evolve and change those revenue streams or go the way of the dinosaur. I know from experience – working in the telecom business for 28 years. You have to bite the bullet and adjust your business according to your streams of cash – slowly shutting off one stream in order to open up another.
@perksince10 I'll actually give the Madison Avenue big boys some slack on this front. If you have worked your tail off getting better and better at the 30 second spot over many decades to build a big business, I'd imagine it would be incredibly difficult to wake up one day and look in the mirror and admit to yourself that the rug is coming out from under you. This is compounded by the fact that most of these big firms are run as partnerships not corporations, so even if you are convinced you need to shrink/transform, it is going to be hard as hell to convince your partners.
Reinventing a business that pays you large sums of money on an annual business might just seem riskier to them than just running their current business model into a wall.
Thanks for sharing -great article to read. Availability of various content and easy access to information make it very challenging indeed. I am surprised that they Mad Ave men are still not ready for a change... as you pointed out newspaper industry's example made it quite clear. My hopes are that Mad ave realizes soon that it is a time for a new approach and I vote for (c)- it is going to shrink slightly
I think the problem you mentioned is as much a problem on the client side as the agency side. I had an interesting discussion with an agency recently and we were talking about the problem of getting broad support for social and digital media programs and he pointed out that it was his experience that most of the senior management at large clients grew up in the traditional TV, Print and Radio world, and were willing to experiment with digital media, but were much more comfortable using the bulk of their budget to support the more traditional advertising forms.
However, with Pepsi's decision to pull out of this year's Super Bowl, I would think that both agencys and clients were beginning to rethink their strategy
First of all, I love the articles on HubSpot--incredibly informative and forward looking--an education for those of us who are constantly under pressure from all forms of marketing representatives to buy into their particular service.
As for creativity, I believe size is a handicap. The bigger a company, the more it needs rules, processes, conformity--the enemies of creativity and thinking outside the box. An opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal recently deplored the Super Bowl ads--same tired old cliches--"men with no pants" over and over again.
The most creative advertising I have seen lately is on a site called Groupon. The ads are so entertaining and original that I read them every day just for the amusement value. I'm sure for some they are too far out and perhaps risky. I can't help but think that if this were a large company, committee approvals would water the material down until it offended no one and bored most of us.
Really good stuff Brian, and I'm sure it was a cool experience...As we've all heard before, the leaders of the previous age are always going to be the slowest to embrace the new age. Madison Ave, the Newspapers, etc are perfect examples of this. Hopefully they'll all get with it soon.
I couldn't agree more. It's no surprise that these execs want to hold on to what they have been doing for years. They will be forced to embrace the inbound marketing strategies sooner or later. We have already seen some of the big dogs embrace it and I'm sure more will follow over the next 5 years.
I'm generally with you except on one point: It seems I watch more commercials than I have in years due to shifting viewing to Hulu from Tivo/DVR. With the DVR it's easy to skip every ad, but with Hulu, you are stuck watching them.
The 30-sec. spot won't be disappearing as fast as the demise of daily print on paper for a simple reason: It has to do with getting in front of hundreds of millions of eyeballs in as short a time as possible IF and WHEN that's what your product and business calls for. Yes, Pepsi bailed on SB44, but be careful how you extrapolate it. This year's SB haul was staggering! Not to say that things aren't changing and won't continue to change, but don't fall into the same trap you chide the Mad Men for falling into: seeing the world through the lens of your business. Look at your business through the eyes of the people you need to reach. TV spots might be the ONLY way.
I think you're absolutely right when you say that the Mad Men have a great chance of succeeding in social media. What I think needs to happen is that these firms need to bring in several social media types and allow for a merge in cultures. I think they'll find that social media metrics are much more laser precision than the tools that they're currently using. The most recent example of a fantastic integration of offline/online advertising I've found is the Wal-mart clown commercial. It exposed the brand in a big way, and was spread pretty far and wide. But that's pretty much where it ended... They don't complete the loop. Thier facebook page has been brandjacked, their twitter pressence is pretty bland, and there is not much more to complete the experience. I think a shrinking and expanding with some new social media blood will definately help the Mad Ave types in the long run.
@Stewart One of my favorite quotes from Seth Godin is, "If there is already a case study in your industry, you are too late."
@Eugenia I totally agree with you that size is the enemy of creativity. You end up getting "regression to the mean" thinking that waters down anything remarkable. It would be a lot harder for Groupon to pull their ads off in the company were 10x bigger.
@RogerSterling (love it) Nice to hear your voice in the conversation. The point the Madison Ave folks were making was that 30 second spots was the only way to get volume. I actually think they are right-ish still, but it will get wrong-ish very soon and completely wrong shortly after that in my opinion. ...I don't think Madison Ave is dead as their sales skills, their positioning skills, adn their creativity will ultimately be in high demand, but just not for the 30 second spot.
@Joe Totally agree with you that your approach is the right one for a modern Madison Avenue agency. Thanks for the thoughtful comment.
Good points in your meeting and thanks for the write-up, Brian.
It's worth mentioning that the 30-second spot doesn't need to go anywhere. If it's convincing and creative enough, why not run it both online and TV? Old Spice turned out a great ad this year, showed it right before the Super Bowl, and already has almost 2 million views on YouTube.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owGykVbfgUE&feature=related
Pepsi's been the "young generation" cola for decades, so I completely understand dropping out of a Super Bowl that featured The Who as half-time entertainment and promoting their "refresh" campaign on Twitter and Facebook instead.
Interesting!!!!Large agencies have always had big swings in employment. I once had a friend who was one of 1400 laid off the day after his agency lost a big tobacco account. Newspapers have more trouble, since they are dumb enough to give away their content on the internet.
I'm not sure why it's become so hip and "obvious" to say that traditional advertising, in particular TV spots, is dead. Few would disagree that online and social media is vibrant and alive, but that doesn't have to mean that therefore TV is dead or will be in 5 years. TV viewership is at an all-time high (http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/americans-watching-more-tv-than-ever/), granted it's spread out among more channels than there used to be. More importantly, as you pointed out, compelling creative is required for an ad to get noticed in a memorable way. We're all over-exposed to ads on a daily basis, so regardless, your company's ad better be a message worth saying. Otherwise, no one will hear it, no matter where you spend those precious and finite ad dollars.
Dave Balter, ceo of BzzAgent, wrote this article in response (and in disagreement) with my article. Interesting perspective in the article on Wall Street and a great idea on how to use DVR's to do something truly remarkable: http://blog.bzzagent.com/post/madison-ave/
Brian, this is one of the most original takes on the-dystopian-view-of-the-future-of-agencies narrative we hear so often. Thanks for writing about it. I learned about your post from Dave Balter's blog; he and I share a client. I work at a large agency and blog about the changes and challenges we face at http://admajoremblog.blogspot.com.
Whether agencies "survive" or not is not the question. Manufacturers and marketers will continue to need outside resources to help engage consumers with their brands and products. The question is whether those outside resources will look like traditional ad agencies.
I think not. Agencies must change because the media landscape has changed, the way consumers engage brands has changed, the power of retailers has grown, and because marketing can now be much more accountable via analytics.
The discussion about 30-second commercials is tiresome. For the foreseeable future we will be making them, and we will increasingly make other forms of communication, too. (Digital is always mentioned but many overlook retail communication such as shopper marketing.) The real value to be added is in communications planning -- deciding what mix of all the forms of communications will best drive the client's business. If you're good at strategy and creative, you can write a commercial, a banner ad or a shelf talker. If you're good at analytics, you'll know which of those things the client needs.
Once again, you wrote a great post and it sparked a great discussion. Thanks! I'll be back.