Every so often, someone will pose a question about whether or not Twitter is dying. Trouble is, the debate is usually framed around various studies that report on Twitter usage, citing increases in things like number of users, tweets, and mobile usage. But how much does all that contribute to the strength of Twitter as a social network? Where's the qualitative analysis? Or does the quantitative analysis say all that needs to be said?
Well we think it's time to look into the question further; it's time to host an official marketing debate about whether Twitter is a dying social network. And here at HubSpot, we have two employees with very opposing views on this subject.
Kipp Bodnar, co-author of The B2B Social Media Book predicts that Twitter is reaching its peak. Meanwhile Laura Fitton (also known as @Pistachio), lead author of Twitter for Dummies, couldn't disagree more. The two of them will battle it out, defending their opinions live on air, Friday June 22nd at 12PM EST. I'll be moderating this marketing debate, pulling in your questions through Twitter via #MKTGdebate. Trust me, this will be one debate you don't want to miss!
To get a little perspective before the debate takes place, let's evaluate some important Twitter stats from this year and see how they play into whether or not 2012 really is the year Twitter starts tapering out. (And yes, that image above is real. Predictions were put on the HubSpot marketing white board at the end of 2011!)
There are 100 million active Twitter users.
That stat comes straight from Twitter, and while it seems like a lot, it's only an eighth of Facebook users. It is, however, ten times the number of Pinterest users. So what does this say about Twitter usage? Well, Twitter came out two years after Facebook, but six years before Pinterest. In terms of a social network user growth comparison, this means that Twitter's user numbers should be closer to Facebook ... but they're not. While the network continues to grow and show potential for further growth, it could be doing better than it has done.
15% of adult internet users use Twitter.
Whether you think 15% is a lot or a little, the fact is Twitter is still growing ... but not that fast. The Pew Center study showed that Twitter's rate of growth is slowing down (as you can see in the chart below), and furthermore, that growth isn't steady.
After jumping from 8% to 13% from November 2010 to May 2011, Twitter usage dipped slightly in the summer of 2011 before finally climbing back up in 2012. This could mean one of two things: either Twitter hit a momentary weak spot that hurt their user base, or the amount of users leaving Twitter is close to parallel with the number of users joining. The former reason would be understandable -- summertime hits, people aren't on their computers as much, thus naturally not tweeting as much. It's nothing to be concerned with, Twitter is alive and well! But the latter theory has some bad implications; a business never wants the number of customers leaving to be nearly equal to the number joining. New customer rates should always surpass churn rates.
Twitter gets 300,000 new visitors every day.
Woo-wee, that's a good daily number! Clearly people continue to find reasons to visit the site. In fact, 50% of the aforementioned 100 million active users log in daily. That means that returning plus new visitors sums to 50,300,000 daily visits! If that many people are visiting Twitter on a daily basis, how can the site be dying?
But wait, how many of these visitors are actually taking some action while on the site? Are they simply performing a Google search that takes them to a Twitter link from which they quickly click out of? Are some simply clicking a 'Tweet This' button real quick? Is that really a meaningful action? The point is, numbers like this can fool you; a little more digging is required to figure out whether these new visitors are truly engaged with Twitter's platform.
40% of active users don't actually tweet.
Active users are defined as, according to this MarketingVox study, users who do things like read their news feed, favorite tweets, click links, and follow accounts. So that 40% number is pretty great, right? It means even if people aren't tweeting, they're at least checking in and have a chance at seeing your company's tweets.
But while it's wonderful that users are interested in the conversations happening on Twitter, on a busy day, Twitter sees about 175 million tweets. How do users work through the clutter to extract the information that interests them? And if that many tweets are sent a day, are the tweets your business sends out really being seen? So really, this stat could be either good or bad, right? It either means that these users who aren't tweeting are helping by not contributing to an already cluttered stream; or, perhaps it means the value of Twitter is diminishing as more than half of their user base doesn't contribute original content.
So what's your take -- is Twitter dying, or alive and well? Do you know any additional stats that would help inform the debate? Tweet them via #MKTGdebate, and maybe we'll use them during the Live Marketing Debate on June 22nd at 12PM EST!
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Vincent Wright 9:11 AM on June 14, 2012
Poor Kipp. He'll be eating those words well beyond 2012... (Our impatience will make 2014+ seem like an eternity away but, it's not that far away and I'd love to see how Kipp will interpret the taste of crow when he has to eat it over this poorly considered debate...(Psst, Kipp! Crow really doesn't taste that good so, try to find a way to get into a better debate than this one, ok?...))
Amber 9:19 AM on June 14, 2012
Does it really matter if Twitter is dying or not to everyone? No, for some marketers, especially B2B, Twitter has been dead.
Jon Nugent 9:25 AM on June 14, 2012
Tweeting about what you had for lunch doesn't promote your business or get leads.
Our tweets are based upon getting people to read our blogs, white papers and reports. These tweets have been picked up by major magazines in our industry who are looking for content and have retweeted our posts.
Twitter for the first time surpassed Linkedin in generating leads (7.1% to 2.2%) and that's because of HubSpot's tool that helps us create posts.
Brian Collinson 9:28 AM on June 14, 2012
Wow. This is a heck of a good question. Thanks to HubSpot for turning it into a matter for debate. Like Vincent Wright above, I tend to have a great deal of enthusiasm for Twitter, and I feel that I've been able to use it well for my purposes. But there are important business questions here. How long can a social medium expect to stay healthy and growing? More specifically, how long can Twitter keep it up?
I think that, in some important ways, Twitter is a different animal than either Facebook or Pinterest.
I don't have hard data for this, but I strongly suspect that Twitter users use it for different purposes than, say, Facebook. What does this have to tell us about Twitter's longevity? I don't know! But I'll be fascinated to see what HubSpotters make of it...
Adrijus 9:30 AM on June 14, 2012
Twitter is a bit harder to do then Facebook or Pinterest. Tweeting and not getting back any feedback scares people away. Huge problem is signal to noise ratio too. But that doesn't mean Twitter is dying yet.
I'd like Twitter to start private communities that aren't available to public. That could be good source of new growth with invitation only thing where you can start community in one topic. Or at least it might be able to help out with lots of noise...
Tanya Vyas 9:32 AM on June 14, 2012
I don't think Twitter will die anytime soon! If it does, it'll be because of another social platform which we haven't foreseen! But even then, I think Twitter is strong with a USP of 140 characters and an impulsive platform.For B2B I reckon it's just a way of enjoying the platform and identifying the correct way to use it!
Binary Blogger 9:40 AM on June 14, 2012
Twitter is evolving past a social network. Socializing on Twitter is now a second hand thing you do. Twitter has and will become the information aggregation hub for everything. It will be beyond a search engine, beyond a Wiki, beyond a chat room.
If I am wrong then when you see a news report about a celebrity death or other big news story why do people now hit Twitter to validate the source?
The social network tag is no longer applicable to Twitter and gathering stats around that context does not show what it now is.
Vincent Wright 10:02 AM on June 14, 2012
Thanks kindly, Brian Collinson.
One other little matter I think some Twitter doomsayers are overlooking is the integration of Twitter with such sites as Linkedin as Biz Stone (Twitter) and Reid Hoffman (Linkedin) discuss in this YouTube video fron 2.5 years ago: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVZ7VA4zORE
Beyond what is said in that video, is experiencing the widespread, almost universal adaption of Twitter onto the Linkedin platform by business professionals who see the business validity of both.
While it still has significant problems which need to be address by a good strong panel of Twitterati, Twitter isn't quite a standalone app without significant business partners|relationships.
From my viewpoint, Twitter's partnership with Linkedin says a lot more about its positive business future than even the most robust debate can counter...
Zachary Emly 10:18 AM on June 14, 2012
Very Good question...
For me personally as a consumer I strictly use twitter as an information hub. I just shift through the news stories to see if there is something of interest. There is just too much clutter for me sometimes.
As a marketer of common services (insurance) it is difficult to post on topics of interest because it is plagued with. "need insurance" "get insurance now" "looking for insurance" etc... More marketers than consumers. But it is still good for campaigns. I like how Taco bell uses twitter.
I see that people are still engaging with twitter and it is still working. I don't think it will be around much longer just because we don't know if a better social media site will surface. But I think it will make it past 2012!
Steve 10:19 AM on June 14, 2012
When I hear someone run down Twitter because of the 'nobody wants to read what you had for lunch' argument, I immediately know that they just don't get it.
Twitter is growing. They are innovating. They aren't just a social network, they are an ecosystem and a platform. Comparing Twitter to Facebook or Google+ is simply pointless. Twitter is different. There is a reason that both Facebook and Google+ added Twitter-like features to their products... because those features are smart.
This social media explosion we are experiencing right now is NOT about all the cool tools that are available and the laundry list of features that accompany them. Social media is about connecting with others where you are, and sharing information and experiences with them. Twitter was built from the ground up to do that. So I just laugh at those who think that Twitter is dying. They just don't get it.
Geoff Clendenning 10:54 AM on June 14, 2012
From our perspective, which of course is a little biased, Twitter is just getting going.
We have a real-time event Twitter curation that is changing the way event marketers engage their audience on Twitter.
We are excited!
Hashcaster: http://www.hashcaster.com
David Temple 2:14 PM on June 14, 2012
So what does Kipp mean by "peak" and which of these stats will provide a definitive answer?
Doesn't really matter, I'm with Laura on this.
Anum Hussain 2:17 PM on June 14, 2012
Hi all!
Thanks for sharing your thoughts!
@David, I can't speak on behalf of Kipp -- you'll have to watch the debate to find out specifically!
However, I can say that he doesn't believe Twitter will END this year. He just think it will hit the PEAK of its rapid growth and will essentially go stagnant. Again, you can hear his specific opinion during the debate: http://www.hubspot.com/marketing-debate
Anum
Steve Kavetsky [Co-Founder of AgooBiz.com // The Social Commerce Network] 2:19 PM on June 14, 2012
Twitter is not dead and it's not dying. Another commenter mentioned that it shouldn't be compared to the likes of FB and G+ and they are absolutely on point.
Twitter is a different animal. It's like a global text messaging system where you can get your message out to millions w/o much effort. Twitter allows you [the marketer] to focus your resources more on the content of your message and less on distribution. It's like calculators or PC's....when we stopped focusing our efforts on the calculations, WE started focusing more on ingenuity and imagination. The calculation itself is just a means to an end.
My company uses Twitter to carefully aggregate Social Media news, startup news, and business development resources and gets them out to our audience. This frees up our audience's time and transmits to them the overall messages WE know they're interested in. In between these tweets, WE use Twitter to get messages about our Social Commerce Network out to the masses. While I've written in the past about FB's failure to add features that improve the FB platform, I have no criticism of the Twitter platform. It serves its purpose and seems to get it right with its feature updates.
Great Article - thanks Anum!
Steve Kavetsky
Co-Founder/Pres.
AgooBiz.com // The Social Commerce Network
"WE work greater than me"
Geoff Clendennig 2:32 PM on June 14, 2012
Well put Steve. I would go so far as to call Twitter an information utility (like an electrical utility). It's a pipeline for rapidly distributing ideas and sharing content. Add in the #hashtag and you create dynamic ever changing communities around specific subject matter.
I also think you're bang on with aggregation. My company Hashcaster has built the leading hash tag aggregation platform and recently was recognized for this at the West Coast Social Media Awards (http://www.hashcaster.com/toronto-startup-hashcaster-snaps-up-most-innovative-social-media-product-or-technology-at-the-west-coast-social-media-awards/)
Many companies like your are seeing the return in using hash tags to aggregate content and community around your brand and using this community to deeply connect with your prospects and customers.
Best regards,
Geoff Clendenning
CEO
Hashcaster
http://www.hashcaster.com
Cheryl 3:56 PM on June 14, 2012
Why don't you let people post questions via Facebook and Twitter and do some basic testing - it might give you some accurate feedback other than educated guessing.
Anum Hussain 3:58 PM on June 14, 2012
Hi Cheryl!
We are! But of course, you have to use data as well as peoples opinions.
Thus far the question has been posed on our Facebook, LinkedIn, and Twitter accounts! Feel free to check them out :)
We'll also be writing a post with what people thought after the debate, so be sure to voice your thoughts via #MKTGdebate during the debate!
Anum
Davina K. Brewer 4:10 PM on June 14, 2012
I've written the "Twitter is Dead Again" post myself and other comments are right: It is very different and therefore 'harder' than other networks. MMV w/ social networks; it's all in how you're using it and why.
I think there's plenty of room for Twitter to grow but they need maintain their strengths (simplicity) while doing things better. Two areas they could really change things: 1) Noise. Help users get more value by offering better filters, better controls, and plz more aggressive banning/blocking of bogus and spammy accounts. 2) Connecting. Twitter needs to play match maker, do more curating - not just of the 'like me' set, sharing the same old stuff, but also those unexpected connections that can make Twitter so great. FWIW.
Christina 6:00 AM on June 15, 2012
From a Business Prospective -
What we know is when we tweet traffic to our websites increases. But traffic coming from Twitter to our website doesn't.
We have also found some great people to work with through Twitter.
From a Personal Prospective -
I like Twitter because I have found a number of builders, plumbers, and electricians I have employed to work on my home. I've found some great gift ideas I wouldn't have even considered looking for in Google because I was unaware they existed.
I think Twitter still has a place for the small business owner.
-Christina
Tom Schwab 9:03 AM on June 15, 2012
We recently saw where Twitter and other social media is HUGE:
The Deaf and Hearing Impaired.
This demographic is roughly 12-60M in the US alone.
Recently we had the pleasure of serving a gentleman we later found out was deaf. We got to know him better after he posted pictures of the product, tweeted it, asked friends opinions, etc. With all of the RT and mentions we thought at first it had gone viral, instead he was just "talking with his community".
While the new better thing will emerge, the foundation of Twitter is here to stay.
- Tom
Christopher 12:30 PM on June 15, 2012
I could not agree more. I made a prediction a month ago, that I think Twitter will end up dying or it will change substantially in the next 2-3 years.
Addie 1:18 PM on June 15, 2012
I agree with the previous commenter that said that Twitter isn't really about socializing, it's about information collection and sharing. Which is pretty much what our corporate account is for.
I also appreciate that there is a high "noise to signal" ratio there. I never really thought about it before, but when it's stated like that it makes sense that there is rarely response to tweets, and that it's not necessarily a bad thing.
As always, thanks for the insights!
Worli 2:20 PM on June 15, 2012
Well, Twitter isn't dead! It's still a vibrant, high-performance tool for your business marketing.
Julie Schwartz 2:30 PM on June 15, 2012
Has anyone noticed that young people (young adults and teenagers)don't use Twitter? I hired a 23 year old who had no idea that tweets could not exceed 140 characters. In my mind, this is all the evidence I need to agree that Twitter is going to peak. May not be in 2012, but soon.
adlane 3:48 PM on June 15, 2012
it's not the matter if Twitter id dying or not! but will Twitter evolve or not that matter more than you think!
(certainly everything who doesn't advance die!)
can you imagine how twitter should evolve respecting it's own philosophy and skeleton? read this http://imaginewnext.blogspot.com/2011/10/twitter-whats-next.html
Karrie 9:30 AM on June 16, 2012
I don't think Twitter is dying or will die anytime soon but I see it been used more as a friendship/gossip tool; not really serious for business and marketing.
Mac McClure 9:15 PM on June 16, 2012
No one has posted my reason for using Twitter. I like to follow Sprint Car Racing and twitter allows me to see the results from tracks all over the country in real time. I also follow College Sports and I am "watching" the College World Series on Twitter. During Volleyball season I get the results real time.
I look at Facebook about 10 minutes a day but I look at twitter probably 4 hours a day. I sit with the laptop in my lap as I watch television in the evening and follow twitter.
In my world Facebook is dying and Twitter is alive and well.
Kofi Bosque-Hamilton 9:53 PM on June 16, 2012
[Disclaimer: I'm a Twitter developer]
Oh I'm totally with Laura on this one. Twitter is far from dying. Is usage down? - personally it is for me - but the reason is my 9-5 job has a Social Media policy which doesn't allow me to be my outrageous self on Twitter anymore. I suspect I'm not the only one.
So why do I expect Twitter to still do well. Many have said it but Twitter is more of a communication tool, like the fax machine, than a social media site. By the way, I have met more new people than I can count on Twitter so it's not too shabby as a social media site either.
The biggest reason Twitter will live on is that it is the easiest way to talk to ANYBODY in the world. Think about it - in less than 2 minutes I can send a message to a celebrity, business, presidents, governments etc. that was virtually impossible before Twitter.
Kofi Bosque-Hamilton (@kofic)
Founder of @socialistr (the new phone company)
Use @socialistr to call any Twitter handle. Leave a message if they are not available.
See the 1 minute video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GqJSdi3BbM&feature=plcp
Jeremy 4:45 PM on June 17, 2012
The signal to noise ratio with twitter is so bad that I and most colleagues have just given up trying to digest the ever increasing amount of information...a lot of which is of such low quality that it makes it hard to find the good stuff.
We are still tweeting for business purposes, but I stopped consuming a long time ago. It is a ONE WAY conversation, and I think that is the nail in the coffin. That's not to say that there aren't others using it effectively, I just think that they are in the minority.
I think the number of users will continue to grow, but daily usage will lessen over time as people can't find a way to integrate into their daily routines.
I think the largest number of tweets are all coming from a VERY small base of hyper users.
So, I'm with Kip, I think twitter will continue to grow and not die but will eventually be marginalized in comparison to other mediums.
PINTEREST, now that is interesting. It has been very effective for getting our content out there and repinned.